Key Take Aways
• 90-120 day deferrals on debt are starting to expire.
• Talk of 2nd round of PPP or working capital loan for hospitality industry. Waiting for outcome.
• Medical office space has turned into a key defensive play for resiliency.
• Increased focus on campground and marina developments. Sign of the times.
• Chicago is about 350,000 fewer jobs lower than pre-COVID. Most are in the hospitality and restaurant arena. Second wave impacted professional.
• Increase in renters looking for larger 2-3 bedroom units – in line with work from home environment.
• The projects that are moving forward have institutional capital or unique deals where conditions protect the project from current trends.
• In Chicago hotels are operating in “winter mode” working on building up occupancy towards break-even. Focus towards Spring 2021.
• Renters who gave up the suburban home and chose to rent in the city to be close to work, utilize amenities, etc. are gone and it will be a long business development process to get them back.
• Reports that 53% of restaurants that have temporarily closed, are announcing permanent closure.
• Childcare operators are in increased demand.
• GDP down 9.5% – dropped faster and larger than the great recession. Recovery has started but is showing signs of faltering under “second wave.”
• COVID-19 recession is simultaneously a supply and a demand shock.
• Recessions tend to accelerate emerging trends.