Raleigh September 2021 – Key Take Aways
- Wells Fargo’s Rich Walters and David Koehler noted economists think inflation is peaking now. They are busy with refinances, new projects, and SOFR transition.
- Spencer Wilson of First Horizon confirmed the longer-term finance market is extremely competitive, with great diversity on what’s available dependent on product type and market.
- Mony Grewal of SINGH Development reported strong lease-up in Cary 200+ multi-family project, SINGH’s first in NC. Experienced labor shortage and some breakthrough cases in senior housing, but optimistic about long-term viability. Avi Grewal sees turnover in the firm’s consultancy base.
- Terracon’s Joe Starr reiterated labor shortage challenges. He sees small box stores (Dollar General, Chick-Fil-A) growing, plus uptick in distribution warehousing and transportation (DOT).
- John Austin of Whiting-Turner said commodities are less volatile than 6-8 months prior. Sees high prices, long lead-times on electrical gear and raw materials (PVC piping, metal conduit).
- Bohler Engineering’s Mark Fletcher sees uptick in cold storage demand, data centers and logistics. Also sees high-density multi-family and affordable (entry-level) housing increasing.
- Kirk Bradley and Kevin Scanlon of Lee-Moore Capital discussed delays in new tenants opening, including labor shortage and upfit delays, ranging from 60 – 180 days behind. MOSAIC Comes Alive! is a free music + makers market series the first three weekends of October.
- NC State’s Tom White reported on NC State’s partnership with its sister land-grant university NC A&T and on continued interest in NC’s foreign trade zones, plus activity in semi-conductors, life sciences, offshore wind and advanced manufacturing.
- Matt Martin of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond presented the following information:
- Economy is recovering well since 2020 Q1 + Q2 shutdown.
- GDP is above pre-COVID levels; sees above-trend growth in 2022 and then stabilization.
- Consumers have money, but car sales and new home sales dropped due to no product.
- Consumer sentiment cratered when COVID hit, then grew, and is now dropping again.
- Employment is well below pre-COVID levels; unemployment rates are declining. By the end of 2022, it should be 4% or below. Labor force participation has recovered by half.
- Consumer inflation is above Fed’s target; Chair Powell thinks increase is temporary.
- Labor market is far behind: $5M short of pre-pandemic peak with 10M job openings.
Recent Comments