Guhan Venkatu, Vice President and Senior Regional Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s Pittsburgh branch, led an engaging and informative discussion on the state of Pittsburgh’s economy. While our regional labor market remained steady before and during the recession, Pittsburgh’s future outlook may not be as bright as some expect.

Although Pittsburgh’s labor market was among the best performers in similar markets during and after the recession – due in large part to oil and gas development in Washington County – there has been little employment growth since 2012. At the end of 2015, the regional unemployment rate was equal to the national average – about five percent – but the numbers shifted in 2016. This year, the local labor market worsened and was about one percent higher than the national average.

In better news for real estate, there was an increase in permitting for multi-family structures the second half of 2016. And even though permits for single family structures declined, home price growth rates of about four percent outperformed national averages. This is notable in an area without a population increase. The professional services sector also experienced significant growth in the past year, and oil and gas began to rebound the second half of 2016. Both are good indications of what 2017 could bring.

Questions remain. Is the past prologue? Only time will tell.