The Mid-Atlantic region has not peaked – While some of the hottest markets in the country are in the 8^th inning of what might be a 13 inning game, the Mid Atlantic markets I visited this week got a later start and consequently are still in earlier innings. The fundamentals are the same pretty much everywhere. Smart people in very specific industry niches wanting to live, work and play near transportation and their city’s core.

Pittsburgh may be in the 2nd or 3rd inning – While they are still basking in the glow of their Champion Penguins winning the 2016 Stanley Cup, it’s rumored they will soon be celebrating among other economic development wins, a new 1 million square foot Amazon distribution warehouse near the airport. This deal alone will roughly equal their 2015 total net industrial absorption. Recent institutional investments are signs of a strong and stable market and they have strong fundamentals; smart people wanting to live in the core, strong growing industries like robotics, medical, and energy driven by the Marcellus Shale.

Philadelphia might be in as early as the 3rd or 4th inning – The past 25 years of investment, continued progressive tax laws and safety improvements are driving more and more people to live in the redeveloped urban neighborhoods. The commitment to the Philadelphia urban core of the local real estate investors, Comcast, the “Meds and Eds” – the life science and medical big data industries are driving a very real resurgence to the Center City and University City areas.

Washington, DC is a little further along – maybe the 5th or 6th inning. –  Look for a little slowing in new multifamily development after a whopping 10,000 unit per year absorption for the past 3 years. The Dulles market continues to be white hot as Amazon gobbles up buildings, ground and power for data and distribution. Office is finally coming back with the United States Government becoming active again including the 2.1 million square foot new FBI headquarters campus.

Northern New Jersey may be in the 5th or 6th inning. – Their game will last as long as New York City can play the game. New Jersey’s fundamentals are similar to everyone else’s but different in that the economic engine of New York City provides opportunity for northern New Jersey. Smart people from around the world come to work in New York City. As long as NYC residential rents are high, the New Jersey multifamily market can absorb new product because of its accessibility to The City, price advantages, accessible transportation and an attractive live-work-play environment. There is virtually no well located land to build new product that is not competing with multifamily demand so the industrial market is incredibly tight. At some point lesser quality accessibility will have to give way to the need for industrial supply.

How long will the cycle last? Tough to call.  One thing seems sure to me – the Mid-Atlantic region has not peaked.